Colleen O’Connor: Filner’s Three Nightmares: Recall, Potholes and Nathan Fletcher

Trust me. Bob Filner is in trouble.

Nothing he can’t handle, but still trouble.

The whispers of a recall campaign are growing louder.

The unhappiness of voters with all levels of government—but especially the complaints of downtown businesses against Filner’s often confrontational, “go-it-alone” style of governing—are amplifying the crankiness. As are other political snafus.

Filner’s recent scraps with the city attorney, the City Council president, the hotel industry, etc., have hurt his popularity and are feeding the recall rumors. Some polls show Filner at only 40 percent approval. He needs 50 percent to survive.

Add to this a stable of candidates quietly maneuvering for the job and one appreciates the mayor’s difficulties.

First, the law.

The San Diego City Charter allows for the recall of a sitting mayor after just six months on the job and with a simple majority of the vote. As Filner was sworn into office on Dec. 3, time is not on his side.  Six months means he could be subjected to a recall as early as June. To get a recall on the ballot, approximately 102,342 signatures of registered voters are required (15 percent of the registered voters in the last citywide general election).

Should that happen, a recall election must take place. If Filner fails to reach 50 percent approval, he is removed as mayor.

Who takes his place? Simple: whichever candidate receives the highest number of votes. Not a majority—just a plurality. He or she does not need 50 percent plus 1, or even 40 percent to become the next mayor.

Indeed, in a crowded and competitive field, it is possible to win with as few as 35 percent of the votes cast.  And in a special recall election, the turnout could be quite small. So, the raw numbers of votes needed to win could be negligible.

Thus, the attractiveness of running in a recall election. Cheaper, faster, better.

Here is a realistic scenario.

At least three contenders are capable of challenging Filner. Former mayoral candidate Carl DeMaio; City Council President Todd Gloria; and City Attorney Jan Goldsmith.

All three have sparred with the mayor, enjoy strong constituent support, and possess more than enough time and money among themselves to reach the 103,000-signature threshold.

However, should Filner be recalled, the Republicans would split the vote for the replacement mayor. Hence, a wariness about running.

Enter the dark horse and third-place finisher in the last mayor’s race—former Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher. A lifelong Republican turned independent for the mayoral contest, and just this weekend—a Democrat.

Indeed, on Saturday Fletcher announced on his Facebook page that he was re-registering as a Democrat.

Why does that matter? Because if Filner fails to hold 50 percent and the abovementioned Republicans either decline to run and/or split the vote, the Democrats will look for an alternative mayor down ballot. (Filner cannot be on that replacement list).

Fletcher—who had the support of the downtown business establishment in the last election and the endorsement of former Mayor Pete Wilson—can now claim the Democratic, or more accurately, the “non-Republican” mantel.

Other lifelong Democrats will resist entering the fray in order to avoid drawing support from Filner, but should he falter there is the freshly minted Democrat Nathan Fletcher ready to assume the job.

His timing is impeccable.

Filner must know this. He has been trying to move to the center with the San Diego-Tijuana Olympics bid; an overture to Mitt Romney to be the titular head of the effort; some smart moves to shore up his base on the environment; and letting Donna Frye return to the private sector after disagreements on her salary classification as director of “government transparency” caused concerns.

However, voters are in a sour mood. Mad at Washington, at gas prices, at traffic jams, and seemingly unsolvable problems. Plus, San Diego voters hate public feuding. Just do the job. Fix the problems.

Especially the potholes.

DeMaio may have lost the mayoral election, but he hit the target on potholes. The city’s streets have actually become ugly.

San Diego’s omnipresent potholes are now emblematic of a dysfunctional City Hall. And fairly or not, Filner will bear the wrath of these cranky voters.

June and Filner’s problems are “busting out all over.”